2003 Master Class – Gerald Appel

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2003 Master Class – Gerald Appel

$87.00

  • NASDAQ Composite and Current Volatility
  • 2.  The Long Term Moving Average Channel of NASDAQ
  • 3.  MACD Patterns of the S & P 500 Threatening to Break Long Term Downtrend
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Master Class with Gerald Appel 

at the January 2003 Caribbean Traders’ Camp

Session 1

Market Indices and Chart Formations

  • 1.  NASDAQ Composite and Current Volatility
  • 2.  The Long Term Moving Average Channel of NASDAQ
  • 3.  MACD Patterns of the S & P 500 Threatening to Break Long Term Downtrend
  • 4.  NASDAQ /NYSE Index Relative Strength Favors Nasdaq – Bullish
  • 5.  Bullish and Bearish Chart Patterns 1
  • 6.  Bullish and Bearish Chart Patterns 2
  • 7.  Angle Changes
  • 8.  T-formations
  • 9.  NASDAQ Composite T-Formations
  • 10. Andrew’s Pitchfork

Session 2

Moving Average Convergence-Divergence

  • 1.   Illustration of MACD Concept
  • 2.   Introducing the Signal Line
  • 3.   The Basic Buy and Sell Signal
  • 4.   Using Divergences to Recognize the Reliable Signals
  • 5.   Further Examples of Divergences
  • 6.   Comparing MACD to a Price Momentum Oscillator
  • 7.   Comparison of MACD and RSI
  • 8.   Different MACD’s for Buy and Sell Signals
  • 9.   MACD during a Strong Market Uptrend
  • 10. MACD during a Strong Downtrend
  • 11. Treasury Bonds, MACD, and a Strong Uptrend
  • 12. The Stop-loss Signal for an Unsuccessful Trade
  • 13. Using Trendlines to Confirm Buy and Sell Signals
  • 14. Long-Term MACD Signals – The Start of a Bull Market
  • 15.  A Long Bull Market – Then the Crash
  • 16. Using Monthly MACD to Define Very Major Trends
  • 17. Using Time Cycles to Confirm MACD Signals
  • 18. Using Time Cycles – 2nd Example
  • 19. When MACD Does Not Provide Timely Signals
  • 20. Four Stages of MACD and the Market Cycle
  • 21. The 1998 Bottom
  • 22. A Bull and then a Bear Market
  • 23. Catching the Lows – the 1984 bottom
  • 24. A Second Example of Bottom Finding
  • 25. A Final Example of  Bottom Finding
  • 26. Bear Market Rally, 2001 – 2002

Session 3

Riding the Market:  Strategies to Stay on the Right Side of Market Trends

  • 1.   Summary
  • 2.   Drawdown Illustrated
  • 3.   Some Risk-Adjusted Performance Measures (Higher = Better)
  • 4.   “Normal” Risks for Various Investments (not worst cases)
  • 5.   Basic Risk Control Strategies
  • 6.   Core Portfolio – Designed to Minimize 1–year Losses
  • 7.   Four Parts of the Portfolio
  • 8.   Core Portfolio Performance History
  • 9.   Minimum Risk Portfolio
  • 10. Core Portfolio at Vanguard
  • 11. Core Portfolio with ETF’s
  • 12. Concept of Relative Strength
  • 13. Example of Relative Strength Analysis: NYSE Composite Rises Faster when NASDAQ is Strong
  • 14. Large Cap Value/Growth Model
  • 15. SVX Divided by SGX (monthly)
  • 16. Performance of SVX/SGX Model since 1994
  • 17. Average Performance of Large Cap Value Mutual Funds vs. Large Cap Growth Mutual Funds since 1962
  • 18. Large Cap Value Divided by Large Cap Growth
  • 19. Large Cap versus Small Cap Model
  • 20. S & P 500 Divided by S & P 600 (monthly)
  • 21. Performance of S & P 500/SML Model since 1995
  • 22. S & P 500 Index vs. Average Small Cap Mutual Funds since 1979
  • 23. S & P 600/Cash Timing Model Rules
  • 24. S & P Small Cap/Cash Timing Model
  • 25. S & P 600/Cash Model Results
  • 26. Interest Rates and Stocks
  • 27. Stocks and Interest Rates
  • 28. Results: Rates and Stocks, 1962 – 2002
  • 29. Avoid Sales Loads
  • 30. How is Your Fund Doing?
  • 31. Mutual Funds vs S & P 500

Session 4

Four Presentations

A – Analyzing the Stock Market with Moving Average Trading Bands

  • 1.   Basic Concept of Moving Average Trading Channel
  • 3.   Different Phases within the Moving Average Trading Channel (NASDAQ Composite, Daily)
  • 3.   Different Phases within the Moving Average Trading Channel (NYSE Composite, monthly)
  • 4.   Long-Term Weekly Chart –NYSE Index 21-Week Average, 6% bands
  • 5.   Moving Average Channels in a Flat Market Period – 1991-1992

B – Volatility Peaks and Major Market Bottoms

  • 6.   The NASDAQ Composite and Historical Volatility, 1970 – 1979
  • 7.   The NASDAQ Composite and Historical Volatility, 1980-`1989
  • 8.   The NASDAQ Composite and Historical Volatility, 1990-1999
  • 9.   The NASDAQ Composite and Historical Volatility,2000-2002
  • 10. Peak Volatility, Subsequent Market Movement

C – The 4 Pillars of Investment Success – Long-Term Growth with Greater Safety

  • 11. Investment Strategies for Uncertain Times
  • 12. Why Safer Stock Funds Work Better
  • 13. Avg % Gain in Winning Months – Avg % Loss in Losing Months Based on Volatility Groups
  • 14. Gain Per Year, Based on Volatility Groups – 20 Years
  • 15. Closed Drawdowns Based on Volatility Groups
  • 16. Fund Rotation Strategy – Performance by Performance Rank

D – The Power of NASDAQ

  • 17. NASDAQ Composite – NASDAQ/NYSE Minus 10 Week Moving Average, 1970-1973
  • 18. NASDAQ Composite – NASDAQ/NYSE Minus 10 Week Moving Average, 1980-1984
  • 19. NASDAQ Composite – NASDAQ/NYSE Minus 10 Week Moving Average, 1997-2002
  • 20. NASDAQ Composite When NASDAQ is Dominant vs. NASDAQ buy and Hold – NYSE Composite When NASDAQ is Dominant vs. NASDAQ buy and Hold
  • 21. NASDAQ Relative Strength Summary
  • 22. Relative Strength with Intermediate Monetary Filter

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